Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
