China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.
This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.
“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.
Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.
That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.
China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.
An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.
In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.
Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.
Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.
Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.
On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.
Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.
Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.
Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.
Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.
“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”
The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.
However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.
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