Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
