The Way The Bizarre Season Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still